RESEARCH General Government

RUDY VS. HILLARY
Usual Republican and Democratic strongholds breaking with tradition

Andrea Lynn, Humanities Editor
(217) 333-2177; a-lynn@uiuc.edu

3/1/2000

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- It has all the earmarks: The U.S. senatorial race in New York should be one of the most interesting races in the country. "It also could be one of the most expensive senate races ? not just in New York, but ever," says campaign-watcher Michael Krassa.

According to Krassa, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois, and a political consultant, the candidates may spend $60 million between them -- "as much as some presidential runs." While the first lady has "some impressive fund-raising," Krassa said, "much of her money comes from out-of-state. That could become an issue. It would if I were Giuliani."

Where the great interest comes in, Krassa said -- aside from the fact that Hillary Clinton is the first lady and also had her own "health insurance fiasco," and Rudy Giuliani has been "a perpetually controversial mayor" -- is with the idea that their campaign "is turning some of the usual logic around."

"New York City usually goes Democratic, but Giuliani is very popular there. However, he is hurting in the suburbs and upstate -- traditional strongholds for Republicans. Seen as "a brash outsider" by upstaters, "Giuliani is, in a sense, as much a carpetbagger upstate as Hillary," Krassa said. "Also, with his positions on gays, guns and blacks, he may have some trouble with upstate conservatives. And, Giuliani's support of gays, abortion rights, gun and rent control, and of some liberals, could cost him dearly. It makes the typical upstate Republican distaste for all things NYC even greater."

Meanwhile, the first lady, unlike almost all Democrats, finds support in the heavily Republican suburbs of New York City. Most of that is from the strong backing of working women.

"She needs to shore that up," Krassa said, "and drive the wedge deeper between Giuliani and upstate. But I wouldn't advise her to focus too heavily on 'women's issues' because, even though it might play in the city's suburbs, she needs to focus on economic development problems upstate."

Still, Clinton's popularity is falling, "like a rock," Krassa said. This is because she is so "ill defined and she is letting others define her. Her artificially high popularity, because she did some good things as first lady and did so well through the Lewinsky thing, is over, and the attitudinal and informational vacuum needs to be filled. She can do it herself, or the Republicans will do it for her."

Also, Krassa would advise Hillary Clinton to "put a stop to her rising negatives."

"Her negatives are rising and popularity falling because she hasn't done that much. She spent a lot of time on a 'listening' tour, but never really forged an identity in voters' minds. If she is smart, she would use her declaration to basically say, 'I've spent a few months getting to know New Yorkers and now know that I want to live here and represent you. Now I'm going to tell you what I am all about.'

"In other words, it's time she began a real campaign and reshaped herself based on issues," said Krassa, a consulting partner with SouthEast Analysis Group, based in Florida.