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ELECTIONS
Drive for electoral votes ignores most Latino voters, political scientist says

Andrea Lynn, Humanities Editor
(217) 333-2177; a-lynn@uiuc.edu

11/1/2000

Photo by Bill Wiend Louis DeSipio, a professor of political science, says the election of 2000 is "passing by" the Latino population.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- Al Gore and George W. Bush's focus on close state races has worked to the disadvantage of at least one population -- Latinos. In fact, "The election of 2000 is passing them by," said Louis DeSipio, an expert on Latino voting behaviors.

DeSipio's claim is based on the candidates' focus on snagging electoral votes in states such as Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington and Wisconsin, where Latino populations are small, at the expense of states where Latinos reside in the largest numbers -- California, Illinois, New York and Texas.

By deciding which states to visit and where to spend money for ads, the candidates also "cue the media as to what states to pay most attention to," said DeSipio, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois and the author of "Counting on the Latino Vote: Latinos as a New Electorate."

According to DeSipio, the Latino-politics scholarly community was caught by surprise that Gore and Bush would target Latinos in Wisconsin, for example -- where 35,000 Latinos are registered to vote. Still, if Wisconsin goes to Gore by 1,500 votes -- a realistic number for newly mobilized Latino voters there -- "it could be argued that Latinos swung the election," DeSipio said.

On the other hand, the states more likely to see Latino influence in the race to the White House are Florida, New Mexico and Arizona. In each, the Latino community "can be mobilized given the right incentives." Thus, close Gore victories in either New Mexico or Arizona could be attributed to Latino voting. Florida will be trickier to call, DeSipio said. Both candidates are investing in Florida Latinos - but in different Florida Latinos: Bush on Miami's Cuban-American community, and Gore on Orlando's Puerto Rican Latino population. Still, Gore "has pandered a bit to the Miami community -- Elian and the 'hijacking' victims - but these efforts will have limited success -- meaning he'll get 15 or 20 percent of the Miami Cuban vote."

DeSipio predicts that the Democratic candidate will get at least 60 percent of the Latino vote nationally, and the Republican will pick up 20 percent. "The remaining 20 percent is up in the air," he said, adding that "even when the Democrat does poorly, he wins three in five Latino votes."

Despite the marginal role of Latinos in the presidential campaign, Latinos could play an important part in another "national" contest: helping to determine the party that will control the House of Representatives. "Latinos are concentrated in three California districts that could shift from the Republicans to the Democrats, and one majority-Latino Democratic-held district that could shift to the Republicans -- in large part because the Republicans nominated a moderate Latino Republican."

DeSipio estimates that between 5.3 and 5.5 million Latinos will vote in 2000 - up from 4.9 million who voted in 1996; such numbers comprise as much as 5.5 percent of the national electorate. These growing figures tend to knock holes in one prevalent myth about the Latino community, DeSipio said: "that they are disengaged from U.S. politics."