NEWS INDEX Archives 2004 November

Rise in U. of I. Flash Index of Illinois Economy suggests stagnation at end

J. Fred Giertz, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
217-244-4822

Mark Reutter, Business Editor
217-333-0568

11/1/04

EDITORS, NEWS DIRECTORS: The Flash Index of Economic Growth, produced by economists at the University of Illinois, is based on the most up-to-date information on the Illinois economy.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The University of Illinois Flash Economic Index rose last month to 102.6. The Index was at 102.2 in September.

The results suggest that the Illinois economy has broken out of the stagnation that it occupied during the first eight months of this year.

“The state economy now is growing at a rate that would be expected at this stage of the economic expansion that followed the 2001 recession,” said J. Fred Giertz, the U. of I. economist who released the Flash data today.

Individual- and corporate-tax components of the Index were up in real
(inflation-adjusted) terms from the same month a year ago, while sales-tax receipts were virtually unchanged. Corporate taxes, which measure corporate profits, have performed particularly well in the last several months.

The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through Oct. 31.